JETI

Samuel Bamidele

Oluwasegun Aluko

Profesor O. Aluko

Oluwasegun Aluko

Abstract

Lagos Metropolis, one of Africa’s fastest-growing urban centres, experiences severe mobility pressures driven by rapid urbanization, population expansion, and increased travel demand. These dynamics have overwhelmed the city’s predominantly road-based transport system, resulting in chronic congestion, unreliable travel services, prolonged commute times, and significant socio-economic losses. In response to these challenges, this study develops and simulates a multimodal transportation system that integrates road, rail, waterway, and non-motorized transport (NMT) modes to enhance mobility efficiency and promote sustainable urban movement across Lagos Metropolis. A mixed-methods research design was adopted, combining the administration of 900 structured questionnaires, development of Origin Destination (OD) matrices, GIS-based spatial analysis, and multimodal simulation modelling. These approaches facilitated a comprehensive assessment of existing transport conditions, identification of critical mobility constraints, and evaluation of the potential operational and socio-economic benefits of multimodal integration. Results show that Lagos’ transport network is overwhelmingly road-dependent, with road infrastructure occupying approximately 78% of the urban landmass, while rail and waterway systems remain significantly underdeveloped and underutilized. Passenger throughput analysis confirms this imbalance, indicating that roads convey an estimated 600,000 passengers daily, compared to 150,000 by rail, 80,000 via waterways, and 50,000 through NMT. Survey outcomes further reveal strong commuter support for a multimodal system, with respondents ranking reduced travel time (4.5/5), improved accessibility (4.2/5), and lower transport costs (4.0/5) as the most valued benefits. GIS spatial analysis highlights major disparities in accessibility, particularly the congestion-prone corridors of Ikeja, Surulere, Apapa, and Yaba, contrasted with underserved waterfront zones such as Eti-Osa. Simulation results reinforce the transformative potential of multimodal integration, indicating that coordinated road–rail–water–NMT connectivity could reduce average commute times by 39.6%, increase daily passenger throughput by 40.6%, and shift congestion levels from “high” to “moderate,” with significant implications for productivity, environmental sustainability, and equitable mobility. This study concludes that achieving an efficient multimodal system in Lagos requires integrated policy frameworks, targeted infrastructure investment, improved institutional coordination, and structured engagement with formal and informal transport operators. By adopting a holistic multimodal approach, Lagos Metropolis can unlock substantial economic and social benefits, reduce transport-induced externalities, and advance a more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban mobility future. 

References

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